What a good forecast looks like

A forecast is not a prediction. It is a statement of assumptions, arranged so that the people reading it can argue with each one individually.

Put the assumptions on the surface

If a reader has to open a formula to find out what growth rate you used, the model is hiding its own argument. Assumptions belong on their own sheet, labelled, with the source written next to them.

Model the timing, not just the total

Businesses rarely run out of profit. They run out of cash, in a particular week, because money arrived later than it left. A forecast that reports only annual totals cannot see that.

Build one model, three cases

A downside case built in a separate spreadsheet is a different model, and it will drift. Drive every case from the same assumptions sheet so the comparison stays honest.